SARS Cov2 epidemiology

Epidemiology

virus is not spread by mosquitoes^[81]
virus does not seem seasonal^[86]
among blood donors, infection-induced SARS-CoV2 seroprevalence increased from 3.5% in July 2020 to 20% in May 2021^[146]
- combined infection- & vaccination-induced seroprevalence in May 2021 was 83%^[146]
- in Nov 2022, 94% of Americans estimated to be infected with Covid-10 at least once^[170]
COVID-19 public health emergency will continue through Jan. 11, 2023^[167]
2022 outbreak of Covid-19 in China produces no new novel variants^[171]
- predominant strains (90%) since Nov 14 2022 Omicron BA.5.2 & BF.7^[171]
WHO declares end of global health emergency May 2023^[176]

Transmission of SARS-CoV2

virus can be spread person to person^[6]
- not transmitted from mother to fetus^[115]
- spread from person to person through airborne particles
  - SARS-CoV-2 is typically transmitted through respiratory droplets (from an infected person sneezing or coughing) rather than through contaminated objects &/or materials^[17]
  - infectious droplets from a cough may travel > 6 feet^[95]
  - SARS-CoV-2 may be transmitted through simply talking or breathing^[26]^[31]
  - CDC emphasizes airborne transmission of SARS Cov2^[139]
  - spending <A186>>=</A186> 15 minutes cumulative within 6 feet of an infected person in a 24 hour period defines "close contact" & risk for COVID-19^[88]
  - > 1/2 of SARS CoV2 transmission occurs from asymptomatic individuals^[114]
    - 60% of transmission via asymptomatic individuals Jan 2021
      - may be higher with Omicron^[114]
      - 56% of adults with recent Omicron infection are unaware of their infection^[166]
  - transmission from asymptomatic or presymptomatic individuals may occur with exposure > 5 minutes at distances up to 15 meters^[164]
    - singing events, restaurants, buses, courtrooms, & fitness facilities are common venues^[164]
  - someone is likely most contagious from 48 hours before developing symptoms to 3 days after the last symptoms end
    - a person is contagious for ~14 days after exposure to the virus
    - probably not contagious 10 days since appearance of symptoms, provided afebrile > 24 hours & other symptoms of Covid-19 improving
  - persons who develop COVID-19 despite being fully vaccinated are less infectious for contacts, who in turn are protected from infection if vaccinated^[150]^[162]
  - transmission of SARS-CoV-2 by age
    - young adults are the main drivers of transmission in the U.S.^[112]
      - 72% of infections Aug-Oct 2020 originated with adults age 20-50 years^[112]
    - insufficient evidence to conclude whether transmission of SARS-CoV-2 by children is lower than by adults^[79]
    - transmission similar in children & adults, but disease less-severe in children^[107]
    - SARS-CoV-2 RNA levels higher in symptomatic individuals than in asymptomatic individuals without age-related differences^[142]
    - seropositivity increased in Mississippi children from 2.5% in May to 16.3% in September 2020^[128]
      - Hispanic children were most likely to test positive, followed by Black children
      - ~114,000 children in Mississippi infected by mid-September 2020, whereas < 9000 pediatric cases reported^[128]
    - asymptomatic children transmit COVID-19 in the community^[77]
    - contact-tracing suggests children & adolescents 10-19 years may transmit SARS CoV2 more often than children < 9 years of age^[67]
    - school-aged children, are far less important drivers of SARS-CoV-2 transmission than adults^[61]
      - teachers may be index cases more often than children^[123]
    - children likely to be major source of transmission of SARS-CoV2 variants^[132]
    - reopening of schools in England was associated with increasing prevalence of SARS-CoV2 among children of all ages, with an increased risk of ICU admission & death for older adults > 65 years living with children^[130]
    - children < 5 years of age carry higher levels of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in their nasopharynx than adults^[62]
    - children < 10 years transmit SARS CoV-2 to others much less often than adults do, but the risk is not zero^[62]
    - children & adolescents 10-19 years can spread SARS CoV-2 at least as well as adults do^[62]
    - among children & adolescents, gatherings with persons outside the household & lack of consistent mask use in school associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection^[111]
    - children & adolescents with 44% lower odds of secondary infection with SARS-CoV-2 compared with adults^[79]
    - children may carry coronavirus in noses, throats for weeks^[77]
    - children account for 22% of new cases of Covid-19 in May 2021^[138]
    - younger children may be more likely to transmit SARS-CoV-2 infection compared with older children^[144]
      - the highest odds of transmission observed for children age 0-3 years^[144]
  - restaurants, gyms & coffee shops among most likely locations for spread of SARS CoV2 outside the home^[99]
  - indoor exercise without masks (gyms) associated with high transmission rate^[125]
  - high transmission rate associated with choir practice^[41]
  - loud speech can emit thousands of 12-21 micron oral fluid droplets per second
    - in a closed, stagnant air environment, these droplets remain airborn for 8-14 minutes^[43]
    - airborne particles < 5 microns containing SARS CoV2 RNA remain infectious & may travel tens of meters^[59] but is not the dominant mode of transmission^[17]^[43]
  - CDC estimates 35% of COVID-19 cases are asymptomatic^[46]
    - 40-45% of positive cases are asymptomatic at the time of testing^[51]
      - 33% of SARS-CoV-2 infections could be asymptomatic (never symptomatic)^[51]
      - 40% of skilled nursing facility SARS-CoV-2 infections were asymptomatic^[94]
    - 11% of asymtomatic positive tests are presymptomatic;
      - symptoms occur within 4 days of testing^[52]
    - asymptomatic patients with COVID-19 do contaminate the environment & confer risks for those close in contact^[55]
    - > 1/2 of adults with COVID-19 report no known close contact with an infected person in the 2 weeks of symptom onset^[58]
    - 90% of asymptomatic patients test negative within 15 days^[52]
    - prevalence in asymptomatic children 0-2.2%; (< 1% overall)^[73]
  - presymptomatic infections may facilitate spread of SARS-CoV-2 1-3 days prior to appearance of symptoms^[13]^[24]^[36]
    - infectivity begins 2-3 days before symptom onset & peaks 0.7 days prior to onset of symptoms^[30]
    - conflicting data regarding shedding of virus by asymptomatic individuals
      - asymptomatic persons more likely to be women, 20-50 years of age & shed virus for ~8 days vs ~19 days for symptomatic persions^[49]
      - asymptomatic cases shed SARS CoV-2 (positive nasopharyngeal swab) for a median of 19 days, significantly longer than symptomatic cases^[54]
      - viral loads & clearance similar between asymptomatic & symptomatic (including presymptomatic) patients^[69]
      - viral loads tend to decrease more slowly in asymptomatic patients^[69]
    - secondary transmission may not occur among close contacts with exposure beginning > 5 days after onset of symptoms^[48]
  - in hospitalized patients with COVID-19 median time from symptom onset to
    - negative viral culture is 7 days & negative RT-PCR is 34 days^[116]
- most SARS-CoV2 infections are not persistently asymptomatic, & asymptomatic infections were less infectious than presymptomatic or symptomatic infection^[161]
  - however, a reliable estimate of the proportion of asymptomatic infections caused by SARS-CoV2 has been elusive^[161]
- transmission can occur from asymptomatic younger persons to older persons
  - also see screening for COVID-19
  - elderly > 70 years living with younger people, including those of working age, are at increased risk for COVID-19 mortality^[90]
  - 20% of grocery store workers in May 2020 tested positive for SARS CoV2; 75% were asymptomatic; contact with customers increased risk 5-fold^[91]
  - 40% of COVID-19 deaths occur in skilled facility (SNF) residents^[92]
  - symptom-based screening in skilled nursing facilities (SNFs) could miss ~1/2 of residents with COVID-19^[19]^[35]
  - skilled nursing facility staff members are a primary source of exposure to SARS-CoV2 for residents^[174]
  - higher SARS-CoV2 testing rates prior to Covid-19 vaccine availability was associated with fewer resident infections & deaths^[174]
  - testing with <24-hour turnaround essential to prevent COVID-19 outbreaks in skilled nursing facilities (SNFs); few SNFs meet this goal^[92]
  - SARS CoV-2 seems to be shed most readily in the upper respiratory tract early in the disease course, when symptoms are mild^[23]^[24]
  - pharyngeal virus shedding very high during the 1st week of symptoms^[23]
  - viral shedding continues up to 6 weeks after symptom onset^[38]
- SARS-CoV-2 can invade conjunctiva, thus potentially spread through eyes^[22]
- contact with fecal matter from an infected person can transmit COVID-19
  - flushing a toilet may aerosolize COVID-19 in feces^[47]
  - toilet exhaust fans may disperse aerosolized COVID-19^[47]
  - among patients with moderate to severe COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2 RNA is found in 40-85% of fecal samples^[160]
    - 49% of fecal specimens collected 1 week after diagnosis contained SARS-CoV-2 RNA^[160]
    - 4% of patients continue to shed SARS-CoV-2 RNA in feces for <A186>>=</A186> 7 months^[160]
- touching a surface or object contaminated with the virus then touching one's own mouth, nose or eyes may be able to transmit COVID-19^[11]
- COVID-19 is not transmitted by food or packaging^[122]
- coronaviruses can remain infectious in air for up to 3 hours
  - median half-life is ~1 hour as an aerosol.
- SARS-CoV-2 persists & remains infectious suspended in aerosols for up to 16 hours^[39] thus surgical masks inadequate but seemed to be adequate in at least some documented circumstances
- risk of becoming infected with COVID-19 during air travel is low^[98]
  - modern aircraft maintain cabin air through a mix of fresh air with recycling through HEPA filters^[98]
  - there is little airflow forward or backward between rows
  - face masks recommended if not required
- hospitals maintain 4-6 air exchanges per hour for infection control^[137]
- application of modern aircraft or hospital stategy in restaurants, gyms, schools, buses etc may reduce aerosol transmission of SARS-CoV2^[137]
vertical transmission not seen^[9]

Transmission during surgery

transmission from plume (aerosol) of electrocautery during surgery does not occur because the plume contains no virus^[140]

Transmission from vaccinated persons

reports of fully immunized people with breakthrough infections of the Delta variant transmitting the virus to others^[143]
vaccinated individuals allegedly carry as much virus in their noses as unvaccinated individuals^[143]

Transmission to & from animals

Transmission of SARS-CoV2 to & from animals

humans can transmit SARS CoV2 to cats & dogs, but probably not visa versa^[84]
- pets are not at a substantial risk from humans with COVID-19^[84]
- dogs do not shed virus or develop respiratory symptoms
- cats shed virus for 5 days & sometimes develop mild respiratory symptoms
Denmark will cull all farmed mink due to mutation in SARS CoV2 infecting mink that could possibly interfere with effectiveness of a vaccine for humans^[96]
pet hamsters implicate in a human COVID-19 outbreak in Hong-Kong late 2021-2022^[152]
- SARS-Cov2 delta variant traced to Syrian (golden) hamsters (Mesocricetus auratus)
potential white-tailed deer to human transmission of SARS-CoV2 in Canada reported^[155]

Contamination & Decontamination of environment

SARS-CoV2 contamination of environment

coronavirus may contaminate environment^[12]^[17]
- public areas with a lot of foot traffic, entrance to a department store & a site next to one of the hospitals in Wuhan China with high virus levels^[37]
- finding SARS CoV2 RNA on floors of long-term care facilities predicts Covid-19 outbreaks^[172]
- coronavirus survival on surfaces^[17]
  - risk of COVID-19 infection from contaminated surfaces is very low (CDC)^[133]
  - metal: stainless steel 2-3 days, copper 4 hours, aluminum 2-8 hours
  - other metals (door knobs, silverware, jewelry): 5 days
  - glass: up to 5 days, up to 28 says^[83]. ceramics: 5 days, paper: up to 5 days, wood: 4 days, back notes 28 days^[83]
  - plastic: 2-3 days. cardboard: 1 day
  - on plastic, Omicron survived an average of 194 hours (> 8 days); Wuhan strain 56 hours, Alpha 191 hours, Beta 157 hours, Gamma 59 hours, Delta 114 hours^[151]
  - on skin, Omicron survived an average of 21 hours; Wuhan strain 8.6 hours, Alpha 20 hours, Beta 19 hours, Gamma 11 hours, Delta 17 hours^[151]
  - no information about how long virus can survive on fabrics^[17]
    - CDC suspects several hours to maybe a day on clothes
    - washing clothes in a machine with detergent will kill the virus^[17]
  - does not spread easily by touching surfaces or objects^[45]
  - does not seem to be transmitted through food or water^[17]
- Japanese investigators found traces of the COVID-19 coronavirus in some Diamond Princess cabins up to 17 days after they were vacated^[15]
- rendered inactive using common disinfectants
  - alcohol-containing hand sanitizers kill SARS CoV-2
- may also become inactive at higher temperatures^[12]
- SARS CoV-2 inactivated by UV light^[83]
- environment of isolation room of asymptomatic infant contaminated with COVID-19
  - infant's bedding, bed rail & a table located 1 meter away from the bed all tested positive^[27]
- protective equipment worn into rooms of COVID-19 patients tested negative for viral contamination^[25]
- SARS CoV2 RNA found on ophthalmology examination room surfaces (2 of 7 postexamination samples)^[66]
CDC recommendations for cleaning & disinfecting potential contamination^[134]
high-efficiency particulate air (HEPA) filters & ultraviolet (UV) light sterilization effectively remove SARS-CoV2 particles from the air^[148]
- strategy effective in two fully occupied COVID-19 wards^[148]

Appearance & resolution of symptoms

median incubation period is 5 days^[14], 4 days^[21]; 8 days^[71]; 4-5 days from exposure in adults & 6-7 days from exposure in children^[121]; range: 2-12 days^[14]; 2-7 days^[21]; 90th percentile is 14 days^[71]
SARS CoV-2 is most infectious about 2 days before symptoms begin & for 5 days afterward^[103]
virus may be detectable for as long as 8 days after resolution of symptoms^[18]
in patients with confirmed COVID-19, sputum samples remain positive up to 39 days
medium time to nasopharyngeal swab SARS CoV2 clearance is 30 days^[20] after pharyngeal swabs become negative, & feces specimens are positive up to 13 days afterward^[20]
man in England with Covid-19 finally tests negative after 411 days^[168]
- he was treated with a mixture of neutralizing monoclonal antibodies
viral loads & clearance similar between asymptomatic & symptomatic (including presymptomatic) patients^[69]
unclear whether positive tests after resolution of symptoms mean the virus is capable of transmission^[18]

Immunity to SARS-CoV2

limited data suggest recovery from COVID-19 might confer immunity against reinfection^[42]; reinfection uncommonly occurs (see below)
- immunity against reinfection wanes with time^[163]; protection conferred by recovery from infection higher than that of 2 doses of vaccine^[163]
- vaccination reinforces protection against reinfection^[163]
- adaptive immune response to COVID-19 is durable & continues to be driven by viral remnants^[109]
- CDC suggests recovered COVID-19 patients have immunity for 3 months^[72]
- resurgence of COVID-19 in Manaus, Brazil after 7 months, despite high seroprevalence (76%)^[119]
- seropositive young adults had ~20% risk of subsequent infection compared with seronegative individuals
  - antibodies induced by initial infection are largely protective, but do not guarantee effective SARS-CoV-2 neutralization activity or immunity against subsequent infection^[118]
- SARS-CoV-2 infection protects against rechallenge in rhesus macaques^[63]
- most patients with asymptomatic or mild COVID-19 have detectable SARS-CoV-2 antibodies 8 months after infection^[109]
- spike-specific memory B cells more abundant at 6 months than at 1 month after symptom onset^[113]
- SARS-CoV2-specific CD4+ T cells & CD8+ T cells decline with a 1/2 life of 3-5 months^[113]
pre-existimg immunity probably doesn't exist^[75]
children's nasopharyngeal epithelial cells & immune cells are pre-activated & primed to detect viral infection, contributing to stronger early immune responses to SARS-CoV2 infection than adults^[145]
SARS CoV2 transmission not likely to diminish over summer^[44]

Origins & Spread of SARS-CoV2

The origins & spread of SARS-Cov2 to & within U.S.

cluster connected to a large wholesale fish & animal market (the Huanan Market in Wuhan China)^[1]^[2]^[153]
swabs from the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market contained genetic material from wild animals & tested positive for SARS-CoV2^[175]
likely originated in horseshoe bats before transmission to intermediate hosts^[165]
likely that 2 different lineages of SARS-CoV-2 in susceptible animals such as raccoon dogs & mink spilled over to humans on different occasions at different locations in Wuhan China 2019.^[147]^[154]
genetic sequences collected from the Wuhan market shows that raccoon dogs may have been carrying & shedding the virus at the end of 2019^[173]
pangolins are a possible source of SARS-CoV-2 transmission to humans^[16]
- origin of SARS-CoV-2 most likely from bat; possibly bat-infected pangolin^[16]^[117]
other intermediary animal hosts also possible^[131]
- striped skunks, deer mice, bushy-tailed woodrats, mink, white-tailed deer, cats, gorillas, hamsters, otters, anteaters, manatees, hippopotamuses^[165]
report that 3 researchers from China's Wuhan Institute of Virology became sick in November 2019 & sought hospital care has revived calls for an investigation into whether SARS-CoV2 may have escaped from a laboratory^[141]
1st cases reported in U.S. Washington state, Chicago, Calif, AZ, Mass January 2020^[3]^[4]^[5]^[8]; 1st cases of endogenous origin reported from Santa Clara County Calif on Feb 6 & Feb 17, 2020
HHS declares coronavirus emergency, orders quarantine Jan 31, 2020^[7]
WHO declares coronavirus a pandemic March 11, 2020^[64]
58% of U.S. population has been infected with COVID-19, including 75% of children & adolescents (Feb 2022)^[158]
case counts global & U.S.
- global case count 676,609,955 as of March 11, 2023 with 6,881,955 deaths^[60]
- 104,618,931 cases in U.S. as of May 7, 2023
  - 1,188,991 deaths in U.S. as of April 13, 2024^[179]
    - 713 deaths in U.S. in the week of April 6-13, 2024, 1.0% of all deaths in U.S.^[179]
    - compare to 769 deaths in U.S. in the week of Mar 31-April 6, 2024
  - as of May 11, 2023, COVID Data Tracker is no longer reporting aggregate cases & deaths^[179]
  - deaths largely in the unvaccinated prior to the Omicron period
  - burden of deaths related to COVID-19 worldwide may be 3-fold higher than that reported^[156]
  - burden of deaths related to COVID-19 in the U.S is an underestimate^[56]^[57]
- US reported 370,298 deaths due to Covid-19 (112/100,000) during the Delta & Omicron waves (61/100,000 Delta wave) & (51/100,000 Omicron wave) exceeding death rates in 20 peer countries^[169]
- the 10 states with most-vaccinated persons had excess all-cause mortality <= to Denmark, Germany, the Netherlands, Austria, Italy, & Finland^[169]
- in October 2020 COVID-19 had become the 3rd leading cause of death for persons 45-84 years of age & the 2nd leading cause of death for those > 85 years^[106]
- Covid-19 was the 3rd leading cause of death in the U.S, in 2021^[157]
- ~9300 U.S. healthcare workers with COVID-19 as of April 9, 2020^[29]
- U.S. healthcare workers & their families account for 1/6 of hospitalized COVID-19 patients^[93]
- > 1 million cases of COVID-19 in U.S. infants, children, & adolescents as of Nov 12, 2020^[100]
- CDC model suggests actual number of U.S. COVID-19 infections may be 8 times the reported number^[102]
- 30 day mortality for hospitalized veterans with COVID-19 vs influenza: RR=6.6^[159]
MMR vaccine associated with less severe COVID-19^[101]
- persons with highest mumps IgG titers had asymptomatic COVID-19^[101]

Risk of SARS CoV2

Risk of SARS-CoV2 (also see COVID-19 Complications: subsection)

frontline health care workers have 3.4 times risk of COVID-19 vs the general population despite adequate personal protective equipment^[65]
- 7 times risk as non-essential workers for severe disease in UK study^[104]
  - medical support staff, nurses, paramedics high risk^[104]
infection rates lower among healthcare workers than among public^[76]
hospital workers who pick their nose have 4-fold increased risk of SARS-CoV2^[177]
- nose picking likely spreads SARS-CoV2 aroung environment^[177]
nosocomial COVID-19 is a rare event with rigorous infection control measures^[80]
low risk of acquiring COVID-19 from hospital air provided surgical mask or N95 mask worn in hospital^[110]
outbreaks have occurred in crowded conditions including meat-packing facilities & prisons^[70]
men (70%) > women (30%), mean age 49 years, 1/3 with underlying disease^[4]
men are more likely than women to be admitted to intensive care (RR-2.8) & to die from COVID-19 (RR=1.4)^[105]
LGBTQ & ethnic/racial minorities have a higher prevalence of comorbidities than heterosexual whites & a higher risk for poor outcomes from COVID-19^[124]
African American disproportionately affected^[28]
- 77% of Covid-19 hospitalizations & 71% of mortality occur in blacks, where blacks comprise only 31% of population^[50] (Louisiania)
- blacks with higher prevalences of obesity, diabetes, hypertension, & chronic kidney disease than whites (risk factors for COVID-19}^[50]
Navajo particularly susceptible^[32]
prevalence in symptomatic & high risk patients Latinos >> blacks >> whites^[53]
family clusters reported^[4]
children with COVID-19 generally have mild disease^[34] excepting multisystem inflammatory syndrome^[40]
excess mortality observed in adults 25-44 years of age^[108]
prevalence variable but high 16-66% among staff members & residents at homeless shelters, but lower when cases had not been previously identified^[33]
prevalence in Indiana 9.6 fold higher than reported cases^[68]
in Africa, Egypt, Algeria, & South Africa with highest risk for importing COVID-19 from China^[10]
16-19% of deceased in Zambia in 2020 tested positive for SARS-CoV-2; 10% children^[120]
South African variant detected in Zambia^[120]
people in their 20s account for more SARS-CoV2 cases than any other age group^[78]
- median age 38 years (Aug 2020)^[78]
persons with Down's syndrome have ~5-fold risk for COVID-19 hospitalization & ~10-fold risk for COVID-19 mortality^[19]
telework associated with lower likelihood of testing positive for SARS CoV2^[97]

Reinfection

Reinfection with SARS-CoV2

33-year-old man in Hong Kong represent 1st confirmed case of reinfection^[74]
89 year-old Dutch woman is the first COVID-19 reinfection death^[85]
- the woman was suffering from Waldenstrom's macroglobulinemia^[85]
5 residents of a Kentucky skilled nursing facility who tested positive for SARS-CoV2 during an outbreak in July 2020 tested positive again during a 2nd outbreak more than 3 months later^[126]
reinfection risk within 7 months is < 10%^[127]
reinfection rate is 8 per 100,000 person-days of follow-up among people >=65 years, versus 4-6 per 100,000 person-days among younger age groups^[129]
5800 fully vaccinated people have been re-infected with SARS-CoV2 in the U.S. as of April 2021 (0.008% of fully vaccinated people)^[135]
re-infection in 10% of unvaccinated Marines within 6 weeks^[136]
50% risk of re-infection 17 months after a 1st infection without measures such as masking & vaccination^[149]

Miscellaneous

increased alcohol use during pandemic including heavy drinking among women^[87]

Additional terms

References

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SARS Cov2 epidemiology

Contents

Epidemiology

Transmission of SARS-CoV2

Transmission during surgery

Transmission from vaccinated persons

Transmission to & from animals

Contamination & Decontamination of environment

Appearance & resolution of symptoms

Immunity to SARS-CoV2

Origins & Spread of SARS-CoV2

Risk of SARS CoV2

Reinfection

Miscellaneous

Additional terms

References

Navigation menu

SARS Cov2 epidemiology

Epidemiology

Transmission of SARS-CoV2

Transmission during surgery

Transmission from vaccinated persons

Transmission to & from animals

Contamination & Decontamination of environment

Appearance & resolution of symptoms

Immunity to SARS-CoV2

Origins & Spread of SARS-CoV2

Risk of SARS CoV2

Reinfection

Miscellaneous

Additional terms

References

Navigation menu

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